It is February 1^st 2015 at University of Phoenix Stadium. Super Bowl XLIX sees The Seattle Seahawks playing the New England Patriots. There is 26 seconds left on the clock and the Seahawks were on the Patriots one yard line. They are trailing by 28-24. The Seahawks have the leagues most dominant running back in Marshawn Lynch. Despite all the pre-game attention being on the star quarter backs, it seemed like this moment was created for Lynch to win the game. Pete Carroll’s call for this final play is one of the most controversial calls in NFL history. Was it really that bad of a decision though…?

The Situation:

• The Seattle Seahawks were playing against the New England Patriots.
• With 26 seconds left, the Seahawks were down 28-24.
• They had the ball on the Patriots’ 1-yard line, with one timeout remaining.
• They had Marshawn Lynch, one of the league’s most dominant running backs, known for his power running.

The Decision:

• Instead of calling a run play with Lynch (which most people expected), Carroll and his offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell called a pass play.
• Russell Wilson threw a slant pass intended for Ricardo Lockette.
• Malcolm Butler, an undrafted rookie cornerback for the Patriots, intercepted the pass, sealing the victory for New England.

The Reaction:

• The decision was heavily criticized. Many fans, analysts, and former players called it the worst play call in Super Bowl history.
• Given Lynch’s reputation for bulldozing through defenders, people thought a run play was the obvious choice.
• Even Seattle players (including Lynch himself) were stunned by the decision.
• Carroll took full responsibility, saying he was trying to catch the Patriots off guard.

The Defense of the Call:

• The Patriots had stacked the box to stop a run.
• Clock management: If the pass was incomplete, the Seahawks could stop the clock and have two more chances to run.
• The play was designed to be low-risk—if the pass wasn’t there, Wilson was supposed to throw it away.

Outcome & Legacy:

• The Seahawks never got another chance. The Patriots ran out the clock.
• It became a defining moment in both Carroll’s and Bill Belichick’s legacies.
• Some analytics suggest it wasn’t a terrible call—but the result made it look catastrophic.

According to NFL analytics from that era (2014-2015 season), the stats for plays from the 1-yard line were roughly:

Running Plays (From the 1-Yard Line)

• Success Rate (Touchdowns): 57%
• Turnover Rate (Fumble or TFL): 1-2%

Passing Plays (From the 1-Yard Line)

• Completion Rate: 48-50%
• Touchdown Rate: 45-50%
• Interception Rate: 1-2%

What This Means for Carroll’s Decision

• A run play with Marshawn Lynch had about a 57% chance of scoring.
• A pass play had roughly a 50% chance of scoring but also risked an incompletion (clock stops) or a rare interception.
• Interceptions on 1-yard line passes were very rare (~1-2%), but that’s exactly what happened with Malcolm Butler’s pick.

Why the Decision Looked Bad in Hindsight

• If Wilson’s pass is completed, Carroll is hailed as a genius.
• The play wasn’t inherently bad from a probability standpoint, but the execution and Butler’s elite anticipation made it look like a disaster. It was a mix of great reading by Butler and poor execution that caused the end result.
• The public’s gut feeling was that running with Lynch felt safer, but stats show it wasn’t a guaranteed touchdown either.

The above is an example of what is referred to as Resulting in the decision-making world. This is judging the quality of a decision based solely on the outcome.

Good Outcome = Good decision. Bad outcome = Bad decision.

This is a very reductive form of thinking and ignores so many crucial factors in a decision-making process. The movie Sully: Miracle on the Hudson gives a magnificent example of this when they use a flight simulator in the inquiry. This completely removes the real-life context, and time it would have taken to make a decision on the best course of action. Once this time to think was applied the simulation flight crashed EVERY SINGLE TIME. This makes the decision-making process of Captain Chesley Sullenberger even more impressive. The simulation can never recreate the emotional response or freeze that can occur when faced with life-or-death decisions also.

History is littered with examples of scenarios where people are judging decisions based on outcomes as opposed to the process and factors considered, the available information and conditions at the time as well as the probability of the available options. We also need to factor in luck and timing when considering whether a decision was poor as opposed to unlucky, or badly timed. Time is a really important factor as what was classified as naïve or downright crazy in a given moment can become genius over time. Here are a few famous examples of this from the business world.

Amazon’s Relentless Focus on Growth (1990s-2000s)

• Jeff Bezos reinvested all Amazon’s profits back into the company instead of generating immediate earnings. Critics mocked it as an unsustainable “dot-com bubble” strategy.
• Outcome: Amazon became one of the world’s most valuable companies.

Apple Firing Steve Jobs (1985)

• Apple’s board ousted Jobs, believing his leadership was detrimental to the company’s stability.
• Outcome: Apple struggled without him and eventually brought him back in 1997, leading to a legendary turnaround.

IBM Allowing Microsoft to Retain Software Rights (1980s)

1. • IBM let Bill Gates and Microsoft keep the rights to MS-DOS, believing hardware was where the real money was.
   • Outcome: Microsoft became one of the most dominant software companies ever.

Google’s Decision to Focus on Search Instead of Portals (Late 1990s)

• Competitors like Yahoo! believed that portals (news, email, entertainment) were the future. Google insisted on a clean, search-focused interface.
• Outcome: Google dominates the internet.

 

Gallup data show that less than a quarter (24%) of U.S. managers strongly agree that their peers make well-thought-out decisions for their organization. Worse, only 14% strongly agree they are satisfied with the speed of decision-making at their organization.

Decision making is a skill and unless you know how you currently go about it, the factors you consider and what your predominant style is, then you cannot replicate good decisions and improve upon poor decisions. It is a constant loop with no feedback other than…did it work?

In summary, decision quality focuses on the process and methodology of making decisions, while outcomes are the end results of those decisions. Although outcomes can influence perceptions of decision quality, they are distinct concepts, with decision quality being more about the process and outcomes about the results. Understanding this distinction is crucial for accurate evaluations and improving decision-making practices. If you are judging decisions solely based on outcomes in the immediate term you are on a collision course for disaster. A good process doesn’t guarantee your desired outcome every time, but it will dramatically improve your results over time.

I will dig into the process side of making effective decisions next month.